Favourite Play – Jason Day – $8,100
Day ranks 3rd in the field this week for Shots Gained Total at Sawgrass and if it wasn’t for a woeful putter he’s be right up there again this week. His tee to green game has been fantastic, ranking 7th in the field for SGT2G so far this week. He has lost 1.2 shots per round with the putter though against his base level of gaining 0.6 shots. Barring a water ball on 17, Day should have a safe floor of 70 with the real potential of a 67/68.
Favourite High Priced Play – Bryson DeChambeau- $10,400
It’s been carnage up at the top range this week but one favourite has managed to avoid all the carnage and continue his steady route to world number 1. He ranks 6th so far this week for SGT2G and still has improvement to be found with the putter.
Favourite Low Priced Play – Chris Kirk – $7,300
Kirk was one of our Under The Radar picks this week. He likes it round here at TPC Sawgrass where he ranks 24th in our CSR and the World Number 84 has 4 top 20 finishes in his last 5 events which includes an 8th and a 2nd. So far this week he ranks 1st for SGT2G.
Player To Be Wary Of – Lee Westwood – $7,600
‘A putting masterclass’ is not a phrase that is often associated with Westwood, however, that is the case so far this week. Gaining 2.2 shots on the field with the putter, however, is not sustainable for a man whose base level is losing 0.2 per round.
Favourite Play – Jason Day – $8,000
Jason Day gets himself a nice early start today when there’s predicted to be no wind whatsoever. Day came into the event ranked 13th in our Course Suitability Ranking and 3rd for SGT at Sawgrass. In round one he shot a solid 70 despite losing 2 shots to the field on the greens. He is, however, statistically one of the best putters in the field on fast Bermuda greens normally gaining 0.6 shots to the field on the short stuff. His ball striking was as solid as ever in round one, ranking 2nd in the field for SGT2G. Barring any disasters on the 17th hole, Day could easily shoot a 67/68 today.
Favourite High Priced Play – Dustin Johnson – $10,500
DJ was my favourite to win this week and despite a very rusty start it was telling that he hung on in and fought his way to keep in the tournament. He now gets a nice early start in round 2 where there will be no wind. The other thing to be excited about with DJ this week is that form greens do not affect his shots gained stats like they do other players.
Favourite Low Priced Play – Sergio Garcia $7,300
Wonderful price for Garcia today. He ranks 2nd in our Course Suitability Ranking and showed exactly why with a 65 in round one. His form coming in has also been decent, ranking 16th in the field this week for SGT2G over the last 2 months. Whilst his putting yesterday was much better than usual, the fact that he ranked 4th for SGT2G and his affinity to the course along with low price means he will be a safe price no matter how badly he putts today.
Player To Be Wary Of – Any High Priced Player With Zero Chance Of Making The Cut
There’s a plethora of high priced players already with little chance of making the cut all whom will be disappointed with differing areas of their game. With being so close to Augusta they will be desperate to get away, rest up and then hit the range to work on their game. They certainly won’t want to be scraping into another weekend of golf with no chance of winning.
LA Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
Opening Line: Oakland +1
Current Line: Oakland +1.5
Location: Ring Central Coliseum
Start Time: 8:20 PM ET
Philip Rivers – $10,000
The Raiders have given up the 4th most yards per pass reception in the NFL this season, giving up an average of 8.4 yards per catch. The Chargers will be riding a huge wave of confidence after beating the Packers last week under new offensive coordinator Shane Steichen. With their full arsenal of best offensive weapons available this week it will be tough to predict which receiver will go off. Therefore, it makes sense to go with the syrup that covers the pancakes and load up on Rivers.
Darren Waller – $8,600
The Chargers have given up the 9th most yards per reception in the NFL so far this season, giving up 7.4 yards per attempt. The stats suggest the way to beat the Chargers is through he air, which is great news for Darren Waller. Even better news for Waller is that the Chargers give up the second highest completed pass percentage in the NFL, allowing 72.2% of passes to be completed. Waller completes a huge 80% of his targets and reels in 6 receptions per game on average.
Low Owned Differential Play
Hunter Renfrow – $5,000
With the Chargers likely to be playing from behind, their pass catchers should all see an increase in targets. After his 7 target game last week, Renfrow has now seen the most targets of all the Raiders Wide Receivers this season. Add to this the fact that he now has back to back touchdown games and his $5,000 price tag looks very favourable.
Josh Jacobs – $9,400
The Raiders running back is the 3rd most expensive play on the board and will probably be one of the highest owned too. However, the Chargers give up just 4.2 rushing yards per attempt. Jacobs also relies on the game script going in the Raiders favour which according to Vegas is less likely than the alternative. The rookie will also be carrying a shoulder injury on a short week. With this many question marks, Jacobs is an expensive chalk I’m happy to avoid this week.
Premier League Leading Scorers
Each Way – Top 4 – ¼ Odds
Gabriel Jesus – 33/1
Manchester City are the odds on favourites to win the Premier League once again this season. They have a Brazilian international that has scored 18 goals in 35 matches for the reigning Copa America champions. So why is he as big as 33/1 to be the Premier League Top Scorer? The answer, obviously, is because he plays second fiddle to Sergio Aguero. However, Aguero is now 31 years old and the signs of an over worked body are starting to show. In just over a year he has suffered 2 knee injuries, a groin injury and a thigh injury. These injuries have cost him a total of 92 days footballing action from the 11th March 2018 to the 8th April 2019. Soft tissue injuries are the type of injuries that linger and need time to rest and recover, especially at the age of 31. However, rather than rest this summer, the Argentinian played in the Copa America where Argentina reached the Semi Finals. If anything does happen to Aguero and he does miss extended time then Jesus will move straight into the role just as he did last season. The Brazilian’s Goal Conversion was only ever so slightly worse than Aguero’s but we can put that down to his starts being sporadic. Even if Aguero doesn’t miss extended time, with the Sky Blues likely to be competing on 4 fronts once again, Aguero will need extra rest this season, thus opening up more playing time for the Olympic Gold Medalist. Man City created 125 Big Chances last season, the vast majority of these could go Jesus’s way this time round.
Michy Batshuayi – 80/1
Following the departure of Gonzalo Higuain back to Juventus following his loan spell at Chelsea last season there is now a 4 way race on for the starting lone striker role at Stamford Bridge. Veteran Oliver Giroud plus youngsters Tammy Abraham, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Michy Batshuayi will all be hopeful of winning the battle. Whoever does claim the role will be good value to knock in a plethora of goals. Over the last 10 games of last season, Chelsea ranked 4th in the Premier League for Big Chances Total. A ‘big chance’ being classified as one where a player should score. Whilst on loan at Crystal Palace last season Batshuayi ranked 3rd for all strikers that played over 500 minutes over the last 10 games of the season for Goal Conversion, converting 4 of 15 attempts into a goal. The Belgium international scores goals wherever he plays. Improving all the time, the 25 year old has scored 114 goals in 252 games. Hudson-Odoi’s injury, Abraham’s Premier League inexperience and Giroud’s advancement in years should make Batshuayi the favourite to land the gilt edged role as Chelsea’s starting lone striker.
Azoye Perez – 150/1
The new Leicester City man arrives at the King Power Stadium off the back of an electric end to last season. The only forward in the Premier League to score more goals than the Spaniard over the last 10 games of the season was his new team mate Jamie Vardy. Perez, however, had the much better Goal Conversion rate. In fact, it was the best in the Premier League last season over the last 10 games. A move to the 2015/16 Premier League Champions will create an improvement in big chances coming Perez’s way. Over the last 10 games of last season, Leicester ranked 9th for Big Chances Total. Leicester are the joint 7th favourites to win the league this year so they should score plenty of goals along the way. With a flurry of creative players around him such as James Maddison, Ricardo Pereira and Marc Albrighton, the former Spanish Under 21 could notch up a very impressive tally this season.